From Blue to Red: Analyzing the Correlation Between Crime Trends and Presidential Leadership in San Antonio

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between federal political leadership and local crime trends in San Antonio, Texas. Utilizing a quantitative methodology, the research draws on data from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, population figures, presidential approval ratings, and electoral results from the Obama (2012–2016) and Trump (2016–2019) administrations. Statistical analyses—including percentage change calculations and temporal trend comparisons—were conducted using SPSS and Microsoft Excel to examine fluctuations across both violent and property crime categories. The study accounts for confounding variables such as population growth and definitional changes in crime reporting, particularly the 2014 revision of the federal definition of rape. Results indicate a discernible correlation between presidential administration transitions and variations in local crime rates, with increases observed during the latter part of the Obama presidency and relative stabilization during the Trump administration. These findings highlight the potential influence of national political leadership on localized criminal activity and reinforce the importance of contextualizing crime trends within broader governance frameworks. The research contributes to scholarly discourse on the intersection of politics, public opinion, and criminal justice, advocating for data-informed approaches to electoral decisions and public policy formulation. KEYWORDS: crime trends, presidential leadership, political polarization, urban crime, violent crime, property crime, San Antonio, partisan politics, public safety, federal administration, political influence on crime, crime statistics, Obama administration, Trump administration, law and order